ARMA 模型（Auto-Regressive and Moving Average Model）是研究时间序列的重要方法，由自回归模型（简称AR模型）与滑动平均模型（简称MA模型）为基础“混合”构成。在市场研究中常用于长期追踪资料的研究，如：Panel研究中，用于消费行为模式变迁研究；在零售研究中，用于具有季节变动特征的销售量、市场规模的预测等。(ARMA model is an important method for studying time series. It is composed of an autoregressive model (AR model) and a moving average model (MA model). In the market research is often used to study long-term tracking data such as: Panel, used to study the mode change in consumer behavior; retail research, for with the seasonal variation characteristics of the sales volume, market size forecast.)