论文：Forecasting ability of the investor sentiment endurance index: The case

of oil service stock returns and crude oil prices-Using a binomial probability distribution model this paper creates an endurance index of oil service investor

sentiment. The index reflects the probability of the high or low stock price being the close price for the PHLX

Oil Service Sector Index. Results of this study reveal the substantial forecasting ability of the sentiment endurance

index. Monthly and quarterly rolling forecasts of returns of oil service stocks have an overall accuracy as high as

52　to 57 . In addition, the index shows decent forecasting ability on changes in crude oil prices, especially, WTI

prices. The accuracy of 6-quarter rolling forecasts is 55 . The sentiment endurance index, along with the procedure

of true forecasting and accuracy ratio, applied in this study provides investors and analysts of oil service

sector stocks and crude oil prices as well as energy policy-makers with effective analytical tools.